Cooper Flagg’s second NBA season could be the one that turns the promising young star into one of the best players in the league, both in real life and in fantasy. After averaging 21.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 4.5 APG on his way to Rookie of the Year honours last season, Flagg has a chance to make another leap in Year 2. But what will it take, how high is his ceiling, and how does the return of Kyrie Irving affect him?
We asked fantasy basketball experts Andre Snellings and Eric Moody for their thoughts on the face of the Dallas Mavericks.
How big a leap do you expect Flagg to make in his second season?
Snellings: I expect Flagg to make a big leap this season, particularly as a scorer. Scoring is the best of his wide array of skills, but as a rookie, then-head coach Jason Kidd asked Flagg to play point guard. That experience probably helped his all-around game, but it came at the expense of his ability to be aggressive in creating his own shot. Playing more off the ball this season, with the green light to score, Flagg could approach 30 PPG while still maintaining solid-to-strong peripheral numbers.
Moody: Flagg has the potential to make his first All-Star team this season. I could see him increasing his per-game averages from his rookie season in points, rebounds and assists. He had three games with at least 45 points last season and is already showing signs of another leap. Flagg scored 32 points in the season opener against the Houston Rockets and followed that with 29 points and 11 assists against the Miami Heat on Monday night. He is only 19 years old, and I expect him to become a more efficient scorer with another year of experience and a better supporting cast.
What does he need to do to maximise his potential?
Snellings: Flagg needs to be aggressive at both ends of the court. On offence, he must be ready to attack the rim, draw fouls and finish in the paint on any given possession. The threat of his attack will free up his jump shot and create more passing opportunities. Flagg should be a willing rebounder, but the Mavericks have so much size that he likely won’t regularly dominate the glass. On defence, he should be just as aggressive in playing the passing lanes and defending the rim. Remember, in college he led Duke in steals and blocks, as well as in points, rebounds and assists.
Moody: Flagg’s outside shooting is the biggest area for improvement. He shot just 29.5% from three-point range last season, and defenders were comfortable giving him space on the perimeter. If he can raise that figure to around 35%, it will open up more opportunities to attack the basket. I would also like to see him become more selective with his midrange attempts. He is already an excellent passer and defender, and his ability to create his own shot is impressive for someone his age. Improving his shooting efficiency would take his offensive game to another level.
How does adding Irving, after a missed season, change things for Flagg?
Snellings: Irving’s return allows Flagg to play alongside arguably the best point guard and the best shot-maker of his career. This should amplify every part of Flagg’s offensive game. Irving can draw defensive attention and then set Flagg up with more open looks from the spots he likes to score from, far more than he got as a rookie. Irving’s ability to knock down shots from all over the court, or to attack imbalanced defences off one or two dribbles, should also increase Flagg’s assist potential. With both on the floor, the opposing defence has two players who demand extra attention, which makes life easier for both.
Moody: Irving’s return should make a significant difference. Flagg spent considerable time at point guard as a rookie because Dallas lacked established playmakers. Now Irving can handle much of that responsibility while drawing defensive attention away from Flagg. That should create more chances for Flagg to attack closeouts, cut to the basket and score without having to create everything himself. I am also interested to see how coach Dusty May uses them together in pick-and-roll situations. Flagg may not have the ball in his hands quite as often, but that does not necessarily mean less production. His scoring efficiency could improve considerably.
Who is a historic example of what Flagg could be this season?
Snellings: For statistical comparisons, I look to two of Flagg’s fellow Duke predecessors: Grant Hill and Jayson Tatum. All three are do-everything wings with forward size and guard-like skills. However, I think Flagg’s statistical output is more advanced than either Hill’s or Tatum’s was in their second seasons. I could see Flagg’s production this season as a combination of Hill’s sixth season (25.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG) and Tatum’s fifth (26.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.6 BPG). Averaging those two stat lines gives a reasonable expected value for Flagg, though he is a slightly better shot-blocker than either and could have more upside as a scorer.
Moody: LeBron James’ second season is the example that comes to mind. LeBron averaged 20.9 PPG as a rookie before jumping to 27.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 7.2 APG in Year 2. I am not saying Flagg will become LeBron, but both entered the league with an unusual ability to impact games as scorers, rebounders and playmakers. Flagg also brings excellent defensive instincts. What stands out to me is how comfortable he already looks against NBA competition. I believe we will see him take a similar step towards becoming one of the league’s best all-around players.
Is there a future bet you would make on Flagg this season?
Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
Snellings: I would bet on Flagg making an All-NBA team at a solid +600. Making an All-NBA team is fairly rare for a second-year player; only 10 second-year players have done it since 1989, most recently Luka Dončić. But Dončić did it as a Maverick, perhaps paving the way for Flagg. If he averages between 25 and 30 PPG with strong peripheral numbers, stays healthy enough to play the minimum 65 games and leads the Mavericks into playoff contention, Flagg has a reasonable chance to follow Dončić’s All-NBA path at just 20 years old.
Moody: I would take a small shot on Flagg to win Most Improved Player at 70-1. He averaged 21.0 PPG as a rookie, but there is a realistic path to him averaging 26.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 6.0 APG this season. The last five winners of this award increased their scoring averages by at least 5.6 PPG, so Flagg might need to get closer to 27.0 PPG to strengthen his case. The challenge is that voters may view a big second-year jump from the reigning Rookie of the Year as expected. However, if Flagg becomes an All-Star and puts Dallas in playoff contention, that could change the conversation. At these odds, I believe he is worth a small wager.