After just one week of NBA action, fantasy basketball experts Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Steve Alexander, Jim McCormick and Michael F. Florio have identified several preseason assumptions already being challenged. Some have changed because of playing time, others because of production or new coaching staffs.
Tyrese Maxey, other 76ers thriving despite Philadelphia’s star power
Moody points out that the concern in Philadelphia was that too many stars would eat into Maxey’s production. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown joined Joel Embiid, yet Maxey averaged 50 fantasy points per game through four games as the Sixers opened 3-1. Brown contributed 36.0 fantasy points per game, while Embiid recorded a 28-point triple-double against the Milwaukee Bucks last Saturday. Moody acknowledges there will be nights when someone sacrifices touches, but Maxey has not looked like the player making that sacrifice.
Florio agrees that the fear of a crowded backcourt and frontcourt has not materialised. Although LeBron and Embiid have already missed a game, they have performed extremely well, especially in Roto formats. Florio says Maxey is a top-five player in all formats, while Embiid and Brown are each averaging over 20 points per game. LeBron James continues to contribute across the board. It is still early, but Florio considers fading them in fantasy an early-season regret.
Giannis’ arrival is already affecting Adebayo’s production
Karabell admits he had not considered the potential statistical downside of Giannis Antetokounmpo joining the Miami Heat for longtime underrated star Bam Adebayo. So far, the fit looks awkward. Adebayo averaged 20.1 points and 10 rebounds per game last season, continuing a seven-season run of excellence. Is that over now? Adebayo is off to a poor start, averaging 11.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, shooting 40% from the field and 61.5% from the free-throw line, and Miami is winless. Karabell says these numbers must improve, but asks by how much, and whether Adebayo remains a top-50 fantasy option. Maybe so, maybe not.
Alex Sarr will have to wait to reach new heights
Snellings believes Alex Sarr is unlikely to approach, let alone build on, his breakout campaign from last season, even if the Washington Wizards are fully healthy. Sarr averaged 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game last season, but is currently averaging 8.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. With Anthony Davis occupying the spaces Sarr prefers at much higher volume, Sarr simply lacks the shots (6.5 field-goal attempts this season, down from 13.7 last year), rebounding and shot-blocking opportunities to match last season. Snellings adds that number one overall pick AJ Dybantsa has not yet played this season, so once he is in the fold, Sarr may see even fewer looks.
Jabari Smith Jr. is showing signs of another leap
McCormick admits he had assumed Jabari Smith Jr. had plateaued as an NBA contributor. He notes that Smith was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 draft, with a prospect profile that hinted at special three-and-D potential. The defence has been impressive and improving throughout, while the offensive side of his game appeared stagnant in recent seasons. With a real spike in three-point volume this season, McCormick believes Smith’s growth as a multi-level scorer is a key factor in Houston’s potential to enter the contending class. In fantasy terms, McCormick considers Smith a solid player to target, as this ascent appears sustainable.
Nikola Vucevic fantasy role is shrinking
Snellings believes Nikola Vucevic’s run of consistent fantasy production is over. He rejoined the Orlando Magic this offseason, and the expectation was that he would battle Wendell Carter Jr. for minutes and production at centre. Instead, Carter is averaging 30.7 minutes per game, compared with Vucevic’s 8.0. Carter is off to a great start, arguably the best of his career. Snellings also notes that, at age 27, Carter fits the career arc of the Magic’s other stars, including Paolo Banchero (23), Franz Wagner (25) and Desmond Bane (28), far better than the 36-year-old Vucevic. Barring injury, Snellings finds it hard to imagine Vucevic’s role expanding into fantasy relevance this season.
Early injuries are already testing fantasy managers
Alexander says he entered the season fully aware of how many NBA players deal with injuries and missed games, but he was not prepared for what emerged in Week 1. Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Cason Wallace, Lauri Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis, Kon Knueppel, Ivica Zubac and Yves Missi are all out with major injuries, and some may not play again this season. Alexander warns that fantasy managers will face tough drop-or-hold decisions, with 24 weeks still to go.