The 2026-27 NBA regular season is underway, and the trade deadline on Feb. 11 is approaching. Several contenders could use reinforcements over the next three months. Injuries have hit the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves hard, and the defending champion New York Knicks have had a shaky start. Our NBA insiders examine what 10 playoff contenders lack, the constraints shaping their trade options and what lies ahead before the deadline.
The teams below are ordered by their ranking in the Basketball Power Index (BPI) as of Tuesday, 10 November.
1. San Antonio Spurs (10-2)
Projected record: 62-20
Chance to reach the conference finals: 58.5%
What they’re missing: The Spurs are winning even without Tobias Harris, their major offseason acquisition. It is hard to find a weakness on one of the league’s most complete rosters. Their depth, however, needs work. If one of their three guards suffers an injury, they could be forced to lean on the likes of Jordan McLaughlin, as they were in last year’s playoffs.
What they can pull off: The Spurs have the draft assets to make a deal, but general manager Brian Wright is not expected to be aggressive. San Antonio chose to stand pat last year despite one of the league’s best records. If the Spurs do move, they hold an unprotected 2027 first-round pick from Atlanta and three other tradeable first-rounders. They also have swap rights in 2028 (via Boston, if Nos. 2-30), 2030 (the most favourable of San Antonio, Dallas and Minnesota, if Nos. 2-30) and 2031 (via Sacramento), plus 12 tradeable second-rounders.
Watch whether San Antonio is willing to take on salary that extends beyond 2026-27. Victor Wembanyama’s extension begins next season, and sixth man Keldon Johnson is a free agent. The Spurs would be only $11 million below the luxury tax in 2027-28.
What’s next for San Antonio? The Spurs plan to play out the season with their current roster, despite having plenty of assets to deal. They look somewhat thin at centre behind Luke Kornet, but the coaching staff has been encouraged by rookie Tarris Reed Jr.’s progress in a short time. Over the next two years, the roster could become expensive, with Stephon Castle expected to sign an extension this summer and Dylan Harper due one in the summer of 2028. The Spurs also have a numbers problem, given the depth they have built.
“There’s not enough minutes to go around,” coach Mitch Johnson said. “Unfortunately, I’ve got to play the bad guy and I’m not always going to be right. But I’ve got to make tough decisions in regards to only 240 minutes.”
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (8-4)
Projected record: 58-24
Chance to reach the conference finals: 43.5%
What they’re missing: The Thunder are missing several rotation players. Their activity at the deadline will depend heavily on when, or whether, those injured players can return. Nique Clifford adds another perimeter body, but he does not look like a playoff difference-maker. General manager Sam Presti may still be searching for a defensively minded wing who can replace some of the production lost to the injured Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace.
What they can pull off: The 8 November trade for Clifford does not stop Oklahoma City from making another move. The Thunder have no open roster spot, but they hold the $5.4 million expiring contract of Nikola Topic and the $4.9 million salary of former first-round pick Thomas Sorber. Because Oklahoma City is over the first apron, it cannot take back additional salary if either player is traded. The Thunder also have three trade exceptions ($5.8 million, $11.3 million and $17.7 million), seven tradeable first-round picks (including three in June) and 19 second-rounders.
What’s next for Oklahoma City? Presti is expected to be patient. The Thunder addressed their need for wing depth with a buy-low trade for Clifford, the 2025 first-round pick, giving up a pair of second-rounders for a player with two seasons left on his rookie deal. Oklahoma City will explore the market over the next few months, but a major splash would be out of character. The Thunder have not made a significant midseason trade since acquiring Kendrick Perkins in 2011. Presti has picks that could fuel a blockbuster, but he also has to manage future finances to keep a contender-calibre supporting cast around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander throughout his prime.
3. Boston Celtics (10-2)
Projected record: 59-23
Chance to reach the conference finals: 57%
What they’re missing: The Celtics rank only 22nd in defensive rebounding rate, an anomaly for a team coached by Joe Mazzulla. Under Mazzulla, Boston has ranked 11th or better in that category every other year, according to Cleaning the Glass. The problem should be fixable with this roster, with Mitchell Robinson and Jayson Tatum, an excellent rebounder for his position, expected to contribute. If the issue persists, Boston could look for another big body to help in the playoffs.
What they can pull off: Last season, the Celtics were one of the league’s more active teams before the deadline. Four separate trades took Boston below the luxury tax and created a $27.7 million trade exception. That exception is available until February, but the first apron hard cap prevents Boston from using more than $10 million of it.
This year, the Celtics do not need to cut payroll, but they must monitor the luxury tax, which they are currently $1.75 million below. Their most valuable asset could be an open roster spot. Because they are under the first apron, Boston can sign a waived player with a preexisting salary of $15 million or more.
What’s next for Boston? Finding another big man could be high on the list. The Celtics have learned from the Knicks not to overtax Robinson, who plays well in spurts, and keeping him around the 20-minute mark is ideal. Keeping Tatum and Paul George fresh is paramount, especially as Tatum works his way back to his new normal in his first full season following an Achilles injury in 2025. The $27 million trade exception could go a long way, particularly if Boston sees the Eastern Conference as winnable.
4. Houston Rockets (9-3)
Projected record: 55-27
Chance to reach the conference finals: 23.8%
What they’re missing: Only two Rockets perimeter players are shooting better than 37% from three this season, and one of them is Bogdan Bogdanovic. His injury history suggests he may not be a safe bet for the full season. Kevin Durant and Reed Sheppard should improve as the season goes on, but Houston might benefit from adding another shooter in the meantime.
What they can pull off: The Rockets have two appealing trade assets in the upcoming draft: the right to swap picks with Brooklyn and an unprotected first-round pick via the Phoenix Suns. Houston also has four additional first-round picks available, a $13.3 million trade exception and an open roster spot. The Rockets can use the full exception and still exceed the first apron.
What’s next for Houston? Despite their assets and trade exception, Houston is likely to refrain from moving, as it did last season. The roster has been revamped with the offseason additions of Bogdanovic and Marcus Smart, along with the return of point guard Fred VanVleet. The roster’s size gives Houston flexibility to use multiple lineups without sacrificing production. VanVleet’s absence last season helped speed up the development of Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr.
Even so, Houston could use more depth at centre, given the injury concerns surrounding Steven Adams (right calf strain) and Clint Capela (right ankle sprain), who are both expected back soon. Unless the Rockets are offered a deal they cannot refuse, they are likely to stand pat.
5. New York Knicks (6-5)
Projected record: 54-28
Chance to reach the conference finals: 42%
What they’re missing: The Knicks had a championship-calibre roster last season, and the only player they lost was Robinson. Andre Drummond has been a serviceable replacement so far, and it is hard to imagine New York finding many better options on the trade market. If one does present itself, that is the clearest spot on the roster worth upgrading.
What they can pull off: The Knicks faced similar limitations last season but still traded for backup guard Jose Alvarado. This season, New York is $809,000 below the second apron and cannot sign a player until 14 February. The Knicks can use Pacome Dadiet’s $3 million expiring contract in a trade but cannot take back more salary. They are also barred from signing a waived player with a preexisting salary of $15 million or more. New York has one first-round pick and 12 second-rounders available to trade.
What’s next for New York? The Knicks are putting contract issues off until the offseason, and flexibility is limited, especially with owner James Dolan insisting the club will not go into the second apron. If Mikal Bridges continues to struggle, will New York start canvassing the league? He is owed over $116.5 million across the next three seasons, including a player option in 2029-30, which makes that difficult. The hope is that he turns things around as he did last season, because this team needs shot creation and shotmaking.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (11-2)
Projected record: 54-28
Chance to reach the conference finals: 13.9%
What they’re missing: The Lakers have the league’s best offence but rank in the bottom half defensively. Specifically, they are 28th in defensive rebounding rate, ahead of only the Bulls and Suns. Kevon Looney is not the answer as backup centre behind Walker Kessler. Sandro Mamukelashvili is a decent option, but the Lakers are one of many teams that could use another competent bruiser on the bench.
What they can pull off: The Lakers depleted their draft assets in the Kessler sign-and-trade, leaving them with the right to swap their 2028 first-round pick as their most significant remaining asset. They have three tradeable second-rounders from 2031 to 2033, two of which belong to the Washington Wizards.
From a roster standpoint, Los Angeles could package the contracts of Jaden Hardy ($6 million) and Jarred Vanderbilt ($12.4 million) for a player earning $26 million or less. Although hard-capped at the first apron, the Lakers are $8.1 million under it and can take back additional salary. They have 15 guaranteed contracts, so they would need to waive or trade a player to open a roster spot.
What’s next for Los Angeles? After exploring trade packages to clear a roster spot during the preseason, the Lakers ultimately waived former first-round pick Dalton Knecht to cut down to the maximum 15 players. Coach JJ Redick has largely stuck to a 10-man rotation, with Vanderbilt overtaking Looney in the depth chart when Mamukelashvili is not in as the stretch five. Redick still has to see what he has in second-year forward Adou Thiero and rookie Cameron Carr, though neither looks like the answer to the Lakers ranking second-to-last in the league in rebounding.
As one Eastern Conference executive told ESPN, “so long as Doncic, [Austin] Reaves and Kessler stay healthy, the Lakers will be fine.” Reaves is now dealing with a left heel injury that forced him out of the win over the Bucks on Wednesday night.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (8-3)
Projected record: 54-28
Chance to reach the conference finals: 26%
What they’re missing: Before the season, frontcourt depth looked like Minnesota’s biggest issue after the offseason trades of Julius Randle and Naz Reid. However, second-year Frenchman Joan Beringer has done an excellent job backing up his countryman, Rudy Gobert. Trey Lyles, back after a season out of the NBA, has performed surprisingly well at backup power forward. The question is whether Minnesota trusts that to continue or would rather pursue a surer option at the position.
What they can pull off: The Timberwolves were among the big winners last February, when they acquired Ayo Dosunmu. Because of that trade and the offseason addition of LaMelo Ball, Minnesota’s draft assets are limited. They have no first-round picks to trade and one second-rounder (2030 via Memphis, if Nos. 51-60).
Cody Williams, on an expiring $6 million contract after Minnesota declined his team option for next season, could be a player to watch. Apron rules stop Minnesota from taking back more salary than it sends out, so the return of Donte DiVincenzo, who tore his Achilles during the 2026 playoffs, could be the Timberwolves’ big addition at the deadline.
What’s next for Minnesota? The Timberwolves are biding their time until Anthony Edwards returns. Minnesota has been impressive since its franchise guard underwent knee surgery after playing just four games this season. The Timberwolves are 5-2 without Edwards and boast the league’s top-ranked defence. The schedule will get tougher, but they have held up well in the face of a potentially season-altering injury.
Ball is adapting well after his offseason trade, and fellow newcomer Jonathan Kuminga has made a strong first impression after so-so stops with the Warriors and Hawks. Dosunmu has been excellent as Edwards’ stand-in. With Edwards projected to return as soon as late December or early January, Minnesota should have plenty of time to evaluate its roster before the 11 February deadline.
8. Detroit Pistons (7-3)
Projected record: 55-27
Chance to reach the conference finals: 44.4%
What they’re missing: The Pistons’ greatest need is the same one they have had for the last 18 months: a second scorer and playmaker alongside Cade Cunningham. Duncan Robinson is the only other perimeter player averaging more than 12 points per game. Daniss Jenkins has done an admirable job as a backup, but he is not a championship-calibre No. 2 option. Detroit does have plenty of trade assets it could use to pursue a fellow star.
What they can pull off: The Pistons are among a handful of teams that control each of their next seven first-round picks. They can trade up to four and swap in each season, and they also have 11 second-rounders available. Despite $90 million committed to Cunningham and Jalen Duren this season, Detroit is $14.5 million under the first apron hard cap.
However, building a trade package without including a starter or key rotation piece could be difficult. To match salary, the Pistons have only the sizeable contracts of John Collins ($17 million), Robinson ($16 million) and Isaiah Joe ($11.3 million), none of which carry guaranteed salary beyond this season. To use its $5.2 million or $15 million trade exception, Detroit would need to open a roster spot.
What’s next for Detroit? The Pistons look poised to be among the top teams in the East during the regular season, even without a deadline move. A year ago, with a young team playing better than expected, Detroit chose not to rock the boat. The front office has favoured patience in letting its young core develop, so it will be worth watching whether an opportunity for a bigger swing arises and how the Pistons respond.
9. Philadelphia 76ers (9-3)
Projected record: 49-33
Chance to reach the conference finals: 21.1%
What they’re missing: The 76ers lack championship-calibre depth at centre behind Joel Embiid, who is the single greatest injury risk for any team in the title picture. Lineups with LeBron James at centre can work on occasion, but that is not a lasting solution. With Ariel Hukporti out for the season after tearing his Achilles, Philadelphia needs a better backup big man ahead of Jabari Walker and Adem Bona.
What they can pull off: The 76ers have an open roster spot and Hukporti’s $3.4 million expiring contract. Because they are $1.8 million under the first apron hard cap, they can take back up to $5.2 million in salary. They also have 10 second-round picks available. Philadelphia can sign a player to its open spot from 4 December.
What’s next for Philadelphia? Coach Nick Nurse said that Dominick Barlow, who has missed the entire season with a back injury, is expected to be cleared for on-court activities by mid-November. The Sixers are thin in the frontcourt, with Bona missing time with a neck injury, Hukporti out for the season and Tacko Fall sidelined with a quad injury.
For now, Philadelphia is encouraged by Walker, who has been the team’s most consistent backup centre this season. He missed time with a knee injury but had his best game of the season in a win over the Bulls, finishing with nine points and 11 rebounds.
“He probably deserves to play more, to be honest,” Nurse said this season.
10. Cleveland Cavaliers (6-6)
Projected record: 47-35
Chance to reach the conference finals: 11.8%
What they’re missing: Cleveland ranks 29th in the league in defensive turnover rate, per Cleaning the Glass, ahead of only the struggling Milwaukee defence. The unit remains decent overall, thanks to Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen near the rim. However, the backcourt looks highly exploitable in the playoffs, as even reserves Sam Merrill and rookie Meleek Thomas are more offensively minded. The Cavaliers badly need another perimeter stopper.
What they can pull off: Five players (Mobley, Allen, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson and James Harden) account for 85% of the cap this season, which makes a trade difficult unless Cleveland is willing to part with Allen or reserves Merrill and Jaylon Tyson. The Cavaliers are $45,000 below the first apron and have no tradeable first-round picks and only one second-rounder. They can fill their open roster spot from 9 April.
What’s next for Cleveland? Last season’s deadline saw Harden take the place of Darius Garland, and the Cavaliers then brought back their core four, believing continuity would make the difference this season. Cleveland is now leaning on younger players such as Tyson, Thomas and Tyrese Proctor for bench depth. Watch whether that trio can keep producing or whether the Cavaliers pursue moves similar to last year’s deadline, when they added veterans Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis to strengthen their depth.